Democrats Face a Demographic Doom Spiral

Victor Joecks
Mon, 09 Feb 2026 15:38:15 -0800
Opinion

President Donald Trump isn't just deporting illegal immigrants. He's deporting the people Democrats need to offset their demographic challenges.

The Census Bureau recently released updated population figures through June 2025. The country grew slightly but that growth wasn't equally distributed. Many red states, like South Carolina, Idaho and Texas, grew significantly. In just one year, each of those states saw their population increase by more than 1%.

Blue states aren't keeping up. California, Illinois and New York now have fewer people than in 2020. In contrast, Florida's population is up around 9%.
Updated: Mon Feb 09, 2026

President Donald Trump isn't just deporting illegal immigrants. He's deporting the people Democrats need to offset their demographic challenges.

The Census Bureau recently released updated population figures through June 2025. The country grew slightly but that growth wasn't equally distributed. Many red states, like South Carolina, Idaho and Texas, grew significantly. In just one year, each of those states saw their population increase by more than 1%.

Blue states aren't keeping up. California, Illinois and New York now have fewer people than in 2020. In contrast, Florida's population is up around 9%.

There's an obvious and important takeaway here. Blue states implemented leftist ideas. They have high taxes and regulations that strangle construction. They have failing schools that teach students to hate America. They force female athletes to compete against boys.

The results have been so intolerable that millions of people have moved out. It's yet another example of people fleeing socialism.

There's a less obvious but just as important takeaway. After the decennial census, states gain or lose congressional seats based on population. Those adjustments change the Electoral College. States receive electoral votes based on how many House and Senate members they have.

The forecast from the American Redistricting Project shows Democrats losing nine seats in reliable blue states. Two swing states, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, would each lose a seat. Those 11 seats would go to states that Trump won in 2024. A different projection from Jonathan Cervas at Carnegie Mellon University has solid red and lean red states gaining 13 seats.

If these projections hold, the Republican presidential candidate in 2032 could lose Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada and win the presidency. The Democratic candidate would have to win those swing states and either Arizona or Georgia.

Liberals could help mitigate this by having more babies. Blue states can't make adults stay, but newborns don't have a choice. That's unlikely to happen. The Institute for Family Studies found that in 2023 the 10 states with the highest fertility rates were deep red states. The 10 states with the lowest fertility rates were deep blue states. Further, conservative women have more kids.

This trend is unlikely to reverse. Just 25% of women who voted for Kamala Harris said they wanted children, a recent New York Times poll found. Among Trump voters, it was 43%. Both numbers skew low because the response group includes adults 45 and older.

You can see the left's dilemma. People are fleeing the misery caused by its terrible policies, while its adherents reproduce at low levels.

Democrats could try better governance. Building more homes, affordable energy and safe streets don't have to be Republican positions.

Instead, the left is relying on immigrants, both legal and illegal to prop up their population numbers. The decennial census currently counts illegal immigrants within a state's borders. No, that doesn't make sense.

It may not continue. Missouri recently filed a lawsuit to stop this. Its legal brief contends that "Missouri and other States will be collectively robbed of eleven congressional seats and electoral votes" if illegal aliens are counted in the 2030 census. If the census stops counting illegals, it'd mostly be blue states losing House members. Texas would drop a couple of seats.

Regardless, deported illegal immigrants definitely won't count in the census. Democrats won't be able to offer them amnesty in the future either.

There isn't a simple way out of this for the left. As residents flee, these blue states will likely become more heavily Democratic. That will lead to more aggressive leftist policies, which will cause more residents to leave and further reduce birth rates. These factors will move blue states even further to the left and so on.

The Democrats have entered a demographic doom spiral.