Will Republicans Lose the Midterms?

Laura Hollis
Wed, 08 Apr 2026 14:52:55 -0700
Opinion

On one of his recent shows, Bill Maher stated (and later posted on X), "Democrats are not going to win the midterms. Republicans are going to lose it."

In response, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) asked on X, "(1) Is he right? (2) Why?"

OK, Senator, I'll give this a shot.
Updated: Thu Apr 09, 2026

On one of his recent shows, Bill Maher stated (and later posted on X), "Democrats are not going to win the midterms. Republicans are going to lose it."

In response, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) asked on X, "(1) Is he right? (2) Why?"

OK, Senator, I'll give this a shot.

If Maher is right, it's because:

1. Each day's news brings more evidence of widespread fraud in this country, bilking American taxpayers out of unfathomable amounts of their money. Independent journalist Nick Shirley exposed the fraudulent child care and medical transport services in Minnesota — created largely by Somali immigrants — and calculated it at more than $100 million. This fell on the heels of the $250 million "Feeding Our Futures" scam perpetrated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Now we're told that the financial fraud in that state could top $9 billion.

But those amounts are dwarfed by the fraud in California, where recent investigations have turned up $170 million in child care fraud and $3.5 billion in hospice fraud (in Los Angeles County alone.) Then there's the $15 billion spent on "high-speed rail" — without even a single foot of track having been laid.

How about the fraud perpetrated on the American public with the "Russia collusion" hoax?

We see plenty of Fox News appearances, irate posts on X and even a smattering of congressional hearings. But where are the indictments, the arrests, the prosecutions? (The "Feeding Our Future" fraudsters have been indicted, but that fraud took place half a decade ago.) Republicans run the Justice Department; what are they doing?

2. The single most important issue to Americans is election integrity. This isn't just a conservative voter issue, a Republican voter issue or a white voter issue. According to multiple polling outlets, a wide majority of Americans want voter ID as part of election security. Harvard CAPS/Harris puts the number at 81% of Americans, including 79% of independents and 70% of Democrats. Pew reports that 75% of Americans across all racial backgrounds want voter ID. Gallup puts the numbers even higher, with 84% of Americans overall wanting voter ID, including 98% of Republicans and 84% of independents. Eighty-three percent of those Gallup polled also want proof of American citizenship.

And yet somehow, a Republican-controlled Congress will not pass the SAVE America Act. Not cannot pass it, will not pass it.

3. In general, President Donald Trump is having to govern by executive order, because the Republican-controlled Congress appears to be doing very little. If Democrats had even the bare majorities Republicans have now, they'd be ramming their left-wing agenda items down our gullets so fast we'd be choking on them. But when Republicans get control of Congress, they act like a middle school student council given control of the mayor's office for a day. Or highly paid court jesters.

4. Republicans voters also want an end to illegal immigration, the enforcement of our borders, and deportation of people here illegally. They do not want amnesty or government benefits for people who came here illegally. But instead of moving on the issues their voters care about, we have Republicans like Florida congresswoman Maria Salazar repackaging "amnesty" and calling it the "Dignity ("Dignitad") Act." She and Texas Republican congressman Brandon Gill are now in a war of words about it on X. Popular X accounts Matt Van Swol, Wall Street Mav and DataRepublican (among an increasing number of others) have called Salazar's bluff (and that of her 19 Republican cosponsors) by reading the entire 261-page bill and explaining, with quotes and page numbers, how the "Dignity Act" is amnesty — and then some.

What's worse is that we don't really know how many people are living here illegally. We're told it's 7 million. Or maybe 10 million. But it's probably much more. The Federation for American Immigration Reform put the number last year at 18.6 million. Amnesty means millions more people added to the voter rolls (and most won't vote Republican, Rep. Salazar), millions more sponsoring family members to come in, and millions more struggling to get in themselves. As Ronald Reagan discovered when he signed an amnesty bill in 1986, "amnesty now and enforcement later" means "amnesty now and enforcement never." Because it takes courage to enforce the law, and Republicans don't have any, even when they're in power.

5. Trump ran on improving the economy and no wars. Now there is war in Iran. Gas is over $4 a gallon. The stock market is down (a huge hit for people living on a fixed income and dependent on the performance of their pensions). The price of oil affects huge swaths of the economy. What's the end game here? When do things get better?

I'm old enough to remember a free Iran, and I support the end of the mullahs' reign there, the elimination of the threat of their having nuclear capability, and the liberation of the Iranian people. But it's not among Americans' top priorities, and the voters who elected Trump don't see those priorities being addressed. Furthermore, at this writing, Iran and the United States are in a "ceasefire," which Trump says presents the possibility of a resolution. But any resolution of this conflict that does not include the permanent removal of the mullahs from power will be a failure.

The midterms are seven months away, and a lot can happen in that time. But the Republican leadership in Congress has established a practice of dragging its feet, and there's little reason to think they'll suddenly change their modus operandi as the election gets closer.

They'd better. A loss at the midterms will be disastrous. We can expect a Democrat-controlled Congress to impeach Trump (and likely other members of his administration). They will not show the same deference to procedural niceties that Republicans profess. Instead, they'll nuke the filibuster, pass amnesty, open the borders, defund federal law enforcement (including and especially Immigration and Customs Enforcement), reimpose censorship, renew their lawfare efforts, prosecute their political enemies and pack the Supreme Court. Which means you can kiss any judicial imposition of constitutional limits on government power bye-bye.

And that's just for starters.

You guys better get off your rear ends and do what we sent you to Congress to do. And don't bleat that Senate Majority Leader John Thune won't let you. If he's in the way, remove him and get the job done. Or lose in November.

There, Sen. Lee. Does that answer your questions?