Trump's Raid War and Trade War Diplomacy: Part 2, Trade War

Austin Bay
Tue, 13 Jan 2026 17:53:25 -0800
Opinion

The Trump administration's grand policy goal is reordering and resetting the world political and economic system to protect the U.S. militarily and benefit American citizens economically.

The ballpark historical frame for this huge effort (YUGE in Trump lingo): President Trump wants to replace the fossilized post-World War II/Cold War global system that 1) China has strategically manipulated with malice to weaken the U.S. and 2) has allowed anti-American regional "bad actors" to damage American interests and criminally exploit America's free society (to the benefit of China and Russia).

Example fossil system faults:
Updated: Wed Jan 14, 2026

The Trump administration's grand policy goal is reordering and resetting the world political and economic system to protect the U.S. militarily and benefit American citizens economically.

The ballpark historical frame for this huge effort (YUGE in Trump lingo): President Trump wants to replace the fossilized post-World War II/Cold War global system that 1) China has strategically manipulated with malice to weaken the U.S. and 2) has allowed anti-American regional "bad actors" to damage American interests and criminally exploit America's free society (to the benefit of China and Russia).

Example fossil system faults:

1) Slacker European and Canadian (!) reliance on the U.S. for their military defense.

2) Uncle Sucker's open home market and hard currency pocket picked by everyone via unbalanced trade policies.

To achieve this history-reshaping goal, the Trump administration employs what I call Raid War (last week's column) and Trade War operations.

Arresting Venezuela's drug-dealing dictator Nicolas Maduro and the Midnight Hammer bomber strike on Iranian nuclear weapons facilities are dramatic Raid War actions. These raids can remove or damage "bad actor" regimes that wage slow but destructive and disintegrative war on American society. Successful raids forward U.S. peace and economic diplomacy worldwide.

ICE, FBI and National Guard deployments to enforce federal illegal drug trafficking, human trafficking, immigration and other criminal statutes are a form of Raid War.

Since oil is money and energy, Coast Guard seizures of "ghost fleet" oil tankers (raids of a type) segue into Trade War.

I admit Trade War is a very diffuse category. Money War may be a more accurate name, but Money doesn't rhyme with Raid — and a little poetry can help make an important point: Trump uses money, sources of money and access to systems that move money as political leverage. He will directly attack an enemy's sources of money. (Raid attacks on drug smuggling boats and drug smuggling facilities are an attack on a bad actor's cash cow.)

Trade is shorthand for using economic power to accomplish two goals:

1) To obtain political leverage to achieve an array of political goals in almost every international situation. For example, on Jan. 12, said nations who continue to do business with ayatollah Iran could face an additional 25% tariff rate on any trade with the U.S.

2) To prepare to physically defend the U.S. by ensuring America controls its own manufacturing, resource and hemispheric bases. Secure control means: 1) the manufacturing base is located in U.S. territory (OK, if Canada behaves, Ontario) and 2) the resource base is either within sovereign U.S. territory or in close proximity (meaning North America, Caribbean basin, Western Hemisphere).

This means building more ships in the U.S. This means China cannot control ports in Panama. It also means the U.S. continues to utilize Greenland's strategic position.

The U.S. has been Greenland's defender since April 1940 when Nazi Germany invaded and occupied Denmark. In 1941, Danish diplomats and Greenland authorities essentially made Greenland an American protectorate. Denmark couldn't protect it. In 2026, Denmark can't protect Greenland from China and Russia. So Greenland remains a U.S. protectorate — which is why Trump wants to end the charade and buy it.

Buying Greenland — with money. Side deals can include resource royalties to Danes and Greenlanders. Royalties paid in greenbacks, not Chinese yuan.

Which segues back to the Trade War Super Villain: China.

In June 2019, I wrote a column discussing Trump's Trade War 2019.

Yes, Trump waged a form of Trade War back then. The column noted Trump's Trade War 2019 against communist China risked red ink, not blood. Quote: "In 2019, if not January 2017, the U.S. decided to engage communist China using Chinese rules." Translation: We will hit you where you hurt.

The size of a nation's market is a very powerful force, and America is the superpower of markets. In 2019, Trump reduced China's once unfettered access to the U.S. market. Trade War 2019 targeted Chinese intellectual property theft. For decades, theft of U.S. intellectual property (e.g., computer chips, medical breakthroughs) provided the dark energy behind Chinese economic expansion. Trump policies exposed China's immature financial systems were and remain sensitive to disruptions. When the tariffs were imposed in early 2018, the Chinese stock market fell 20%.

Mainstream media didn't notice. But Beijing did.