Some Hard Choices For Iran's Ayatollah Theologians

Austin Bay
Wed, 18 Feb 2026 11:48:52 -0800
Opinion

During a Feb. 15 press conference with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio concisely framed the problem ayatollah Iran's nuke weapon-seeking dictatorship presents the sane world: "We're dealing with radical Shia (Islam) clerics ... with people who make political — geopolitical decisions on the basis of pure theology, and it's a complicated thing. I mean, no one's ever been able to do a successful deal with Iran, but we're going to try."

Later, Rubio carefully inferred the U.S. might respond militarily to Iran's chronic terrorism, proxy war-making and threats of nuclear holocaust. "We (the U.S.) are postured in the region for one simple reason, and that is we understand that there could be threats to our forces in the region. We've seen them be threatened in the past, and we want to make sure that we have sufficient capacity to defend them if, God forbid, that were to happen."
Updated: Wed Feb 18, 2026

During a Feb. 15 press conference with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio concisely framed the problem ayatollah Iran's nuke weapon-seeking dictatorship presents the sane world: "We're dealing with radical Shia (Islam) clerics ... with people who make political — geopolitical decisions on the basis of pure theology, and it's a complicated thing. I mean, no one's ever been able to do a successful deal with Iran, but we're going to try."

Later, Rubio carefully inferred the U.S. might respond militarily to Iran's chronic terrorism, proxy war-making and threats of nuclear holocaust. "We (the U.S.) are postured in the region for one simple reason, and that is we understand that there could be threats to our forces in the region. We've seen them be threatened in the past, and we want to make sure that we have sufficient capacity to defend them if, God forbid, that were to happen."

Rubio's caveat is not hollow tough talk. The Trump administration has deployed powerful American naval and air units to the Middle East.

Rubio said Iranian attacks on U.S. forces and citizens — in Iraq, Syria, the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, in South America, perhaps within the U.S. — justify the military surge.

Justify it does. But Rubio's caveat is sugar camouflage. Understand Sec. State Rubio serves as the Good Cop of American geopolitics. The bad cops: Donald Trump and JD Vance.

Senior Bad Cop Trump is commander in chief of the U.S. military armada confronting Iran. And he commands all the other military, intelligence, diplomatic and economic resources supporting it.

Additional line of Trump administration attack: Iran is an economic and political mess. Since late December, nationwide protests have vexed the ayatollahs. These protests are Iran's largest since 1979, when Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew the monarchy and created the current religious dictatorship.

What kicked off the current protests? Economic failure. Tehran shopkeepers protested after the Iranian rial fell to 1.42 million to the dollar.

Why? The Trump administration's tight economic sanctions have throttled Iran and contributed to the ayatollahs' economic mess. An estimated 80% of Iran's citizens now want a new government. But the blood toll is hideous. Since December, the regime's killers have murdered somewhere between 10,000 and 50,000 Iranian citizens.

Iran's economy will get worse. Following the January raid that captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, the U.S. took control of Venezuela's oil industry. Now Washington is poised to control international oil prices.

In a recent column, I called actions like this Trump's global trade war strategy. In the last 10 days, India has seized three illegal "shadow fleet" oil tankers carrying Iranian oil.

So the economic noose tightens. But do holy-robed jerks who base their decisions on "pure theology" get it?

Back to the armada. Via satellite, Britain's BBC has been tracking U.S. naval assets near Iran, in particular the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its screen of guided missile destroyers. The carrier battle group is the most visible component of American offensive military might backing U.S. diplomacy. The USS Gerald Ford carrier and its battle group will arrive in the region within a week.

Beeb satellite feeds can't see the nuclear submarines. USAF B-2, B1 and B-52s are parked on distant bases — maybe. Somewhere amphibious warfare ships carry Marines. The Beeb might check Fort Bragg's airfield for C-17 jet transports. In the era of the Rapid Deployment Force, within 24 to 36 hours, the 82nd Airborne Division was supposed to deploy a beefed-up paratroop brigade anywhere on the globe.

My guess: The 82nd can still do that.

To summarize the U.S. deployment message: Should negotiations fail to completely end Iran's nuclear weapons program and utterly halt Tehran's proxy war-making, U.S. military forces could be ordered to achieve those very sane and humane American geopolitical goals by ... doing what? By going where?

As I write, diplo-posturing continues. Iran's theologians gamble diplomatic bluster and Strait of Hormuz oil choke-point closure threats will befuddle the Trump administration and keep them in power.

In the past, this tired schtick has worked, especially on the Obama and Biden administration dimwit graduate school hacks who told us Iran's pure theologians could be trusted.

The murderous theologs make this bet: If they escape their current domestic crisis and sidestep the Trump administration, they can stay in power long enough to build two-dozen deliverable nuclear devices whose existence ensures the Shia Islamic revolutionary regime's perpetual survival.

Yet, a score of media reports declare regime bigwigs have shipped cash and close family to safe havens outside of Iran. This suggests the ayatollahs are shaken a bit.

Back to the U.S. military display.

The size of the force and the Pentagon's capacity to reinforce it within six days means the U.S. has the combat force to quickly seize an Iranian seaport — with Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz being the prime target.

On Feb. 17, the AP reported Iranian regime forces closed the Strait of Hormuz and conducted "live fire drills." Every day, 20% of Planet Earth's daily oil supply passes through Hormuz aboard supertankers. The ayatollah regime ritually threatens to close the strait in order to spike crude prices. It can no longer do that, but taking Bandar — the oil chokepoint — would demonstrate regime weakness and guarantee economic strangulation.

Holding Bandar would also provide Iranian dissidents with a safe haven and ultimately a base to topple the regime.

This scenario runs several risks. The regime could have a nuke buried in Bandar to detonate when the 82nd arrives — but that's pretty darn Hollywood. Get the intel work done so we can write it off as fiction.

Iranian dissidents may not be capable of providing their own security. Trump will get hit for putting U.S. boots on the ground.

Diplomats in Gulf Arab states and revived European nations get busy. Create a Gulf regional peacekeeping force to defend Bandar and keep the straits open until Iran's freed 80% can form a new Free Iranian Army.